1. Introduction & Geographic Overview

South Maui encompasses one of the most geographically and economically significant real estate corridors on Maui. Stretching from Maalaea Bay through Kihei and into the resort-driven communities of Wailea and Makena, South Maui represents a diverse blend of residential neighborhoods, condominium developments, luxury estates, and visitor-oriented properties.

Climatically defined by consistent sunshine and relatively low annual rainfall compared to windward regions, South Maui has long been considered one of the most desirable ownership locations on the island. Its housing inventory spans entry-level condominiums in North Kihei, mid-tier single-family subdivisions throughout Central and South Kihei, and ultra-luxury oceanfront estates in Wailea and Makena. This wide price spectrum gives South Maui unusual depth and resilience across varying economic cycles.

Between 2020 and 2026, South Maui experienced unprecedented volatility followed by measured normalization. Pandemic-driven demand, historically low mortgage rates, supply constraints, inflationary pressures, rising borrowing costs, and regional wildfire impacts all influenced market behavior. Despite these disruptions, South Maui’s long-term valuation trajectory remains anchored by limited developable land, enduring lifestyle appeal, and international recognition as a premium coastal destination.

This South Market Report examines year-by-year conditions, asset performance segmentation, and projected trends through 2026.

2. Market Conditions in 2020

At the start of 2020, South Maui was positioned within a stable, moderately competitive market. Median single-family home prices in Kihei averaged in the mid-to-high $700,000 range, while Wailea’s luxury homes frequently exceeded $2 million, with oceanfront estates trading significantly higher. Condominium median prices varied widely by zoning and location, ranging from the low $400,000s in older Kihei complexes to well above $1.5 million in Wailea’s resort properties.

The spring of 2020 introduced abrupt uncertainty. Travel restrictions and public health mandates significantly curtailed tourism, which is a foundational driver of Maui’s broader economy. Transaction volume slowed during the second quarter, and buyer hesitation increased temporarily. However, inventory did not materially spike. Sellers who were not under financial pressure largely opted to wait rather than discount aggressively.

By late summer and into the fourth quarter of 2020, historically low mortgage rates below three percent reinvigorated demand. Remote work adoption expanded geographic flexibility for mainland households. Buyers from California, Washington, Arizona, and Colorado accelerated relocation and second-home acquisition plans.

Inventory tightened rapidly, particularly in Kihei’s single-family segments and in condominium complexes permitting short-term rentals. By year-end, median pricing in South Maui had regained early-year momentum, setting the stage for accelerated appreciation.

3. 2021 Expansion Phase

The year 2021 represented one of the most aggressive appreciation cycles in South Maui’s recorded history. Ultra-low borrowing costs, constrained supply, and heightened demand converged. Single-family homes in Kihei saw median prices rise above $900,000 and approach the $1 million threshold by year-end. In Wailea, luxury inventory experienced renewed activity, with numerous transactions surpassing prior comparable benchmarks.

Condominiums exhibited particularly strong appreciation. In Kihei, median condo prices climbed into the $600,000 to $750,000 range, depending on location and condition. Ocean-view and beachfront units achieved record per-square-foot valuations. In Wailea, high-end condominium residences frequently exceeded $2 million, driven by affluent cash buyers seeking secure lifestyle assets.

Inventory levels across South Maui dropped to historically low levels. In several months, single-family home supply measured less than one month of inventory. Multiple-offer scenarios became common, with buyers frequently waiving contingencies or offering above asking price to secure contracts.

Cash transactions comprised a substantial portion of activity, particularly in the luxury and vacation rental segments. Seller confidence expanded accordingly. List prices increased, and days on market compressed significantly.

The 2021 expansion phase recalibrated South Maui’s pricing baseline upward, establishing new market floors across all property categories.

4. 2022 Peak and Interest Rate Shift

Early 2022 continued the upward trajectory of 2021. Single-family home median prices in Kihei exceeded $1 million in multiple months. Wailea’s estate market saw transactions between $3 million and $6 million, with exceptional oceanfront properties surpassing those figures.

However, mid-2022 marked a pivotal shift as inflation prompted rapid increases in mortgage interest rates. Borrowing costs doubled compared to the prior year, significantly impacting affordability for financed buyers.

The effect across South Maui varied by segment. Entry-level and mid-tier properties experienced reduced buyer pools as monthly payment calculations rose. Luxury segments, more reliant on cash buyers, demonstrated greater insulation but still encountered longer marketing timelines.

Inventory modestly increased from pandemic lows but remained below long-term historical averages. Sellers began moderating expectations. While dramatic price declines did not occur, appreciation plateaued. By late 2022, median prices stabilized at elevated levels rather than continuing rapid ascent.

This period marked the transition from overheated expansion to measured recalibration.

5. 2023 Market Normalization

The year 2023 introduced normalization within the context of broader regional disruption. Elevated mortgage rates persisted, reducing transaction volume relative to 2021–2022 peaks. Additionally, the devastating wildfires in West Maui redirected housing pressures across the island.

Although South Maui was geographically unaffected by the fires, displaced residents and workforce needs increased rental demand, particularly in Kihei. This reinforced the value of long-term rental-capable properties and contributed to sustained condominium demand.

Median single-family home prices in Kihei stabilized between $1 million and $1.15 million depending on neighborhood and lot size. Wailea and Makena luxury pricing showed segmentation based on view corridors, privacy, and new construction quality. Well-positioned estates retained strong valuations, while properties requiring modernization faced extended days on market.

Condominium pricing in Kihei generally ranged from the high $600,000s to the mid-$800,000s depending on complex and zoning designation. Wailea condominiums maintained premium pricing well above $1.5 million in many cases.

Buyer behavior shifted toward increased due diligence. Financing contingencies reappeared. Sellers demonstrated greater alignment with verified comparable sales. Days on market expanded compared to 2021 but remained within healthy absorption parameters.

By year-end 2023, South Maui had transitioned into a balanced market environment.

6. 2024 Stabilization

Throughout 2024, stabilization defined South Maui’s housing environment. Interest rates showed periodic moderation but remained materially higher than pandemic lows. Demand remained steady rather than explosive.

Inventory increased modestly but continued reflecting structural supply constraints. South Maui’s geographic boundaries, zoning limitations, and infrastructure considerations restrict rapid housing expansion. New development projects in Wailea and portions of Kihei added inventory selectively but did not materially alter overall supply-demand dynamics.

Median pricing across South Maui remained resilient. Kihei single-family homes generally traded between $1.05 million and $1.2 million. Wailea luxury properties demonstrated a wider pricing band, with median sales frequently exceeding $2.5 million depending on property type. Makena’s ultra-luxury inventory maintained strong per-square-foot values due to irreplaceable oceanfront positioning.

Condominium performance varied by classification. Short-term rental-permitted complexes retained stable pricing tied to occupancy performance. Primarily residential complexes showed moderate, steady appreciation aligned with long-term housing demand.

Stabilization in 2024 reinforced South Maui’s resilience and underscored the durability of its underlying demand base.

7. 2025 Market Trends

In 2025, South Maui’s housing market reflected disciplined activity and moderate growth. Interest rate improvements modestly expanded the financed buyer pool, though cash participation remained substantial in higher-end segments.

Median single-family home pricing in Kihei trended toward the $1.15 million to $1.25 million range, depending on location and improvements. Renovated properties with flexible layouts and accessory dwelling units attracted premium interest. Wailea estates experienced selective upward movement, particularly in gated communities offering privacy and contemporary design.

Condominium pricing showed segmentation clarity. Kihei units ranged from the mid-$700,000s to high-$800,000s for desirable complexes. Wailea condominiums frequently traded between $1.8 million and $3 million, with select properties exceeding those levels.

Seller inventory rose slightly, though many homeowners remained positioned with historically low mortgage rates secured before 2022, reducing turnover motivation. This lock-in effect continued constraining supply growth.

Buyer demographics diversified in 2025, with an increased presence of local move-up buyers alongside mainland second-home purchasers. Long-term ownership perspectives replaced speculative activity.

8. 2026 Forecast & Outlook

Looking ahead to 2026, South Maui is projected to experience continued moderate appreciation within a constrained supply framework. Single-family homes in Kihei are expected to trend between $1.2 million and $1.35 million, reflecting incremental growth. Wailea luxury properties are projected to maintain median values above $2.5 million, with oceanfront estates sustaining significant premiums.

Condominium pricing in Kihei is anticipated to stabilize in the $800,000 to $950,000 range for well-positioned units. Wailea condominiums are expected to maintain strong valuations supported by limited new supply and consistent luxury demand.

Macroeconomic conditions will influence transaction velocity; however, South Maui’s long-term desirability, limited land availability, and global recognition provide structural support. Large-scale oversupply remains unlikely given development constraints.

Overall absorption rates are expected to remain balanced. Extreme seller leverage seen in 2021 is not forecast to return immediately, but sustained demand should support gradual value growth.

9. Property Type Performance

Single-family homes across South Maui have delivered strong cumulative appreciation from 2020 through 2026. Kihei subdivisions experienced pronounced gains due to relative affordability within coastal Maui. In Wailea and Makena, estate properties appreciated substantially during 2021 and retained those gains through stabilization phases.

Condominiums represent the most transactionally active segment. In Kihei, they provide entry-level ownership and rental potential. In Wailea, they function as luxury lock-and-leave residences. Performance differentiation hinges on zoning, view orientation, renovation quality, and association financial health.

Vacant land inventory remains limited, particularly in Wailea and Makena. Elevated construction costs influence build feasibility and support high land valuations.

10. Comparative Position Within Maui

Within Maui’s broader housing market, South Maui occupies a distinct strategic position. Compared to West Maui communities such as Kaanapali and Lahaina, South Maui offers comparable coastal amenities with greater residential diversity and expanded infrastructure in Kihei.

Relative to Central Maui communities including Kahului and Wailuku, South Maui commands significant pricing premiums driven by ocean proximity and resort adjacency.

Within the island’s hierarchy, South Maui spans the full spectrum from attainable condominiums to ultra-luxury estates, enhancing its resilience across economic cycles.

11. Conclusion

From 2020 through 2026, South Maui’s housing market navigated extraordinary expansion, rapid interest rate recalibration, regional disruption, and structured stabilization. The unprecedented appreciation of 2021 established a higher valuation baseline across all property types. Subsequent years demonstrated resilience rather than reversal.

Single-family homes, condominiums, and luxury estates each exhibited unique performance characteristics, yet all benefited from constrained supply and enduring demand. As 2026 approaches, South Maui remains one of Hawaii’s most strategically positioned real estate corridors, defined by geographic scarcity, lifestyle desirability, and measured long-term value growth.