1. Introduction & Geographic Overview
Located along the sun-drenched southwestern coastline of Maui, Kihei represents one of the island’s most dynamic and accessible residential and resort-oriented communities. Stretching from Maalaea Bay in the north to the boundary of Wailea in the south, Kihei encompasses miles of sandy shoreline, established subdivisions, condominium complexes, and mixed-use commercial corridors. Its consistent sunshine, walkable beach access, and comparatively attainable price points have positioned Kihei as a cornerstone of South Maui’s housing market.
Unlike ultra-luxury enclaves to the south or historic resort districts to the west, Kihei maintains a diverse housing inventory. Entry-level condominiums, short-term vacation rental properties in designated zones, long-term rental investments, single-family homes, and higher-end residences in North and South Kihei all coexist within a relatively compact geographic footprint. Proximity to Kahului Airport, employment centers in Central Maui, and resort amenities further enhances Kihei’s market appeal.
From 2020 through 2026, the Kihei real estate market has experienced one of the most pronounced cycles in modern Maui history. Pandemic-driven migration, historically low mortgage rates, supply constraints, interest rate normalization, wildfire-related displacement pressures across the island, and evolving buyer profiles have all influenced pricing, inventory, and transaction velocity. This report examines each stage of that cycle and evaluates the outlook through 2026.
2. Market Conditions in 2020
The year 2020 began under stable conditions before abruptly shifting due to global economic disruption. In early 2020, Kihei was operating within a balanced-to-seller-leaning environment. Median single-family home prices hovered in the mid-to-high $700,000 range, while condominiums traded broadly between the low $400,000s for older leasehold or smaller units and above $900,000 for upgraded or ocean-view properties.
When travel restrictions and stay-at-home mandates were introduced in the spring of 2020, transaction volume temporarily declined. Showings slowed, and uncertainty briefly paused discretionary purchases, particularly among out-of-state buyers who comprise a significant share of Kihei’s ownership base. However, unlike urban mainland markets experiencing population contraction, Maui’s detached geography insulated it from oversupply.
By late 2020, historically low mortgage rates combined with remote work flexibility ignited renewed demand. Buyers from California, Washington, Colorado, and other high-cost states accelerated relocation and second-home acquisitions. Inventory, which had been modest before the pandemic, tightened rapidly. Sellers who hesitated in early 2020 began reentering the market as pricing momentum became evident.
By year-end, median prices in Kihei had recovered fully and were trending upward. Days on market declined, and multiple-offer situations began reemerging, particularly in well-priced single-family homes under $900,000 and vacation-eligible condominiums near the shoreline.
3. 2021 Expansion Phase
The year 2021 marked one of the most aggressive appreciation cycles ever recorded in Kihei. Ultra-low interest rates, constrained housing supply, and intense mainland demand converged. Inventory levels fell to historic lows, in some months dropping below one month of supply for single-family homes.
Median home prices surged into the $900,000 to $1.05 million range by late 2021, representing year-over-year appreciation exceeding 20 percent in many segments. Condominium prices also climbed sharply, with median values rising into the $600,000s and $700,000s depending on complex, condition, and zoning classification.
Cash transactions increased significantly, reducing the sensitivity of the market to lending conditions. Buyers demonstrated reduced price resistance, frequently waiving contingencies and accepting accelerated closing timelines. Properties in North Kihei, prized for commute convenience to Kahului, saw especially strong activity from working households and relocating families. South Kihei condominiums near Kamaole Beaches attracted second-home and short-term rental investors seeking yield and appreciation.
Seller behavior reflected heightened confidence. Listing prices expanded upward, and off-market opportunities diminished as public exposure often generated bidding competition. Despite rising values, supply remained constrained due to limited new construction and homeowner reluctance to sell into uncertain replacement housing conditions.
The expansion phase established a new price floor for Kihei, fundamentally shifting its market baseline entering 2022.
4. 2022 Peak and Interest Rate Shift
In early 2022, Kihei continued its upward trajectory. Median single-family home prices approached and in some cases exceeded $1.1 million. Condominium median prices pushed toward the high $700,000s and above $800,000 in desirable complexes. However, macroeconomic conditions shifted rapidly as mortgage rates began rising in response to national inflation pressures.
The effect on Kihei was not immediate but became evident by mid-to-late 2022. While cash buyers remained active, financed purchasers encountered higher borrowing costs, which reduced affordability thresholds. Demand did not collapse but recalibrated. Properties priced aggressively above recent comparable sales experienced longer marketing times.
Inventory modestly increased from record lows, though it remained below long-term historical averages. Sellers began adjusting expectations. The pace of multiple-offer bidding slowed, and negotiation margins widened slightly.
Despite rate increases, pricing did not materially decline during 2022. Instead, appreciation plateaued. The limited housing supply across Maui, combined with continued lifestyle-driven demand, prevented downward pressure from accelerating. By year-end, Kihei had transitioned from an overheated expansion phase into a late-cycle stabilization period characterized by slower but still elevated price levels.
5. 2023 Market Normalization
The year 2023 introduced broader market normalization across Maui. Interest rates remained elevated compared to 2021 lows, and affordability constraints limited some entry-level buyer participation. Additionally, the devastating wildfires in West Maui shifted island-wide housing dynamics. Displaced households sought temporary and permanent accommodations in other communities, including Kihei.
This event introduced dual pressures. On one hand, investor uncertainty regarding regulatory changes around short-term rentals influenced select condominium segments. On the other, long-term rental demand increased dramatically, reinforcing the underlying value of well-located housing stock in Kihei.
Transaction volume declined compared to peak 2021 and early 2022 levels, yet median pricing held relatively firm. Single-family homes generally traded between $1.0 million and $1.15 million, depending on location and upgrades. Condominiums showed stratification: properties in hotel-zoned or clearly permitted short-term rental complexes maintained strong pricing, while others experienced modest softening if positioned above recent comparable benchmarks.
Days on market expanded compared to the prior two years, signaling normalization rather than contraction. Buyers regained measured negotiating leverage, particularly for properties with deferred maintenance or ambitious list prices. Sellers increasingly relied on accurate pricing strategies aligned with verified comparable sales rather than aspirational appreciation.
By the end of 2023, Kihei had entered a balanced market environment defined by reduced volatility and steadier absorption rates.
6. 2024 Stabilization
Throughout 2024, stabilization became the defining theme. Mortgage rates fluctuated but remained materially above pandemic-era lows. Buyer pools adjusted accordingly. Instead of speculative or urgency-driven activity, purchases reflected long-term lifestyle alignment, rental performance analysis, and employment-based relocation.
Inventory levels gradually increased but remained structurally constrained due to limited buildable land and regulatory considerations. New construction in Kihei, while present in select subdivisions and condominium projects, did not significantly expand overall supply.
Median home prices remained resilient, generally fluctuating within a narrow band around $1.05 million to $1.15 million. Condominium pricing varied by complex and zoning designation but broadly stabilized in the mid-to-high $700,000 range, with oceanfront or fully renovated units exceeding $1 million.
Market participants demonstrated more disciplined behavior. Buyers conducted thorough inspections and financing due diligence. Sellers priced closer to realistic market values, reducing the frequency of dramatic price reductions. Transaction timelines lengthened modestly but remained healthy by historical Maui standards.
The 2024 environment confirmed that the extraordinary appreciation of 2021–2022 had transitioned into a sustainable plateau rather than a reversal.
7. 2025 Market Trends
By 2025, Kihei’s housing market reflected a matured post-pandemic structure. Interest rates showed moderate improvement compared to peak tightening levels, reintroducing select financed buyers who had paused in 2023 and 2024. Demand for detached homes with flexible living configurations—such as ohana units or rental-capable layouts—remained strong.
Median single-family pricing edged upward into the $1.15 million to $1.2 million range in certain neighborhoods, particularly South Kihei and areas offering proximity to beaches and schools. North Kihei maintained stable appreciation driven by local workforce and commuter convenience.
Condominium performance became increasingly segmented. Complexes with clear short-term rental permissibility sustained robust pricing, while primarily residential complexes demonstrated steady but moderate appreciation. Long-term rental yields strengthened due to ongoing housing scarcity island-wide.
Buyer demographics in 2025 showed greater diversification. While mainland purchasers remained significant, local move-up buyers and returning residents increased their presence. Cash transactions continued representing a substantial share of closings, insulating the market from sharp interest rate volatility.
Seller activity rose modestly, though many homeowners retained favorable mortgage terms secured prior to 2022, limiting resale turnover. This lock-in effect continued restricting inventory growth.
8. 2026 Forecast & Outlook
Looking ahead through 2026, Kihei is projected to maintain moderate appreciation within a constrained supply framework. Barring major macroeconomic disruption, median single-family home values are expected to trend between $1.2 million and $1.3 million, reflecting gradual growth rather than accelerated spikes. Condominium pricing is likely to stabilize with incremental gains aligned to rental performance and zoning clarity.
Population growth across Maui remains measured due to geographic limitations. Infrastructure expansion in South Maui continues at a controlled pace, preserving Kihei’s balance between accessibility and residential density.
Interest rate moderation may support incremental transaction growth; however, affordability ceilings will continue influencing entry-level segments. Investor demand will likely remain sensitive to regulatory signals surrounding vacation rentals, though Kihei’s diversified housing base reduces concentration risk.
Overall, the 2026 outlook indicates resilience rather than exuberance. Structural supply constraints and sustained lifestyle demand underpin long-term value stability.
9. Property Type Performance
Single-family homes in Kihei have demonstrated the strongest cumulative appreciation from 2020 through 2026. Limited land availability and high construction costs restrict rapid inventory expansion. Properties offering flexible multi-generational layouts or income-producing potential command premium pricing.
Condominiums remain central to Kihei’s housing ecosystem. Entry-level units provide attainable access to South Maui ownership, while oceanfront and short-term rental properties function as hybrid lifestyle-investment assets. Pricing performance correlates strongly with zoning classification, complex reputation, maintenance condition, and reserve funding stability.
Vacant land transactions remain comparatively limited but reflect elevated per-square-foot valuations due to scarcity. Build timelines and material costs continue influencing feasibility.
10. Comparative Position Within Maui
Within the broader Maui market, Kihei occupies a strategic midpoint between luxury-dominant Wailea and historically resort-focused Lahaina. Compared to ultra-luxury enclaves such as Makena, Kihei offers broader price accessibility and greater housing diversity. Relative to Central Maui communities like Kahului and Wailuku, Kihei commands a premium driven by beach access and resort adjacency.
The community’s comparative affordability within South Maui continues attracting buyers priced out of Wailea while offering lifestyle advantages beyond inland districts. This balanced positioning reinforces demand durability across market cycles.
11. Conclusion
From 2020 through 2026, the Kihei real estate market has navigated unprecedented expansion, interest rate recalibration, natural disaster impacts, and structural normalization. Despite volatility during peak pandemic years, pricing resilience underscores Kihei’s enduring appeal within Maui’s constrained geographic landscape.
Single-family homes established a higher valuation baseline, condominiums matured into segmented performance tiers, and inventory limitations reinforced long-term stability. The market has transitioned from rapid appreciation to disciplined growth supported by diversified buyer profiles and sustained housing demand.
As 2026 approaches, Kihei stands as one of Maui’s most stable and strategically positioned communities, offering balanced accessibility, ocean proximity, and enduring real estate value within South Maui’s evolving market framework.
