1. Introduction & Geographic Overview
Positioned at the southernmost edge of South Maui, Makena represents one of the most exclusive and geographically constrained residential enclaves on Maui. Bordering the master-planned luxury community of Wailea to the north and extending toward La Perouse Bay and the slopes of Haleakalā to the east, Makena is defined by expansive oceanfront estates, limited condominium inventory, and large agricultural parcels with panoramic views.
Makena’s development intensity is significantly lower than neighboring Wailea. Zoning limitations, conservation districts, and the preservation of shoreline access have restricted large-scale subdivision. As a result, Makena functions primarily as a legacy estate market characterized by substantial land holdings, gated compounds, and architectural privacy. Oceanfront frontage is finite and irreplaceable, which has historically insulated pricing against volatility.
Buyer profiles in Makena are predominantly high-net-worth individuals and families seeking long-term asset preservation rather than speculative turnover. Transactions are fewer in number but higher in dollar volume relative to most other Maui submarkets. From 2020 through 2026, Makena experienced substantial appreciation during the pandemic expansion phase, followed by stabilization amid interest rate recalibration and broader Maui housing adjustments.
2. Market Conditions in 2020
At the start of 2020, Makena’s single-family home median price was generally positioned between $4,000,000 and $5,500,000, with premier oceanfront estates exceeding $10,000,000 depending on frontage and acreage. Condominium inventory was limited, concentrated primarily in oceanfront projects such as Makena Surf, with median prices typically ranging between $2,000,000 and $3,500,000.
The early months of 2020 reflected steady but selective transactional activity. Inventory levels were modest, often fewer than twenty active single-family listings at any given time. Days on market averaged between 90 and 150 days, consistent with the discretionary nature of ultra-luxury purchases.
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 briefly slowed activity due to travel restrictions and uncertainty. However, by mid-year, historically low interest rates, surging equity markets, and a re-evaluation of lifestyle priorities catalyzed renewed interest in low-density coastal properties. Makena’s expansive lot sizes and relative seclusion aligned directly with buyer preferences for privacy and self-contained estate living.
By year-end 2020, median single-family prices had climbed modestly, reflecting renewed competition for limited inventory. Transaction volume remained relatively low compared to Wailea, but dollar volume increased meaningfully.
3. 2021 Expansion Phase
The year 2021 marked one of the most aggressive appreciation cycles in Makena’s history. Global wealth accumulation, elevated stock market valuations, and sustained remote work flexibility intensified demand for trophy properties in premier coastal destinations.
Inventory levels tightened dramatically. In several quarters, active listings of oceanfront estates were counted in single digits. Months of supply fell below balanced market thresholds, even within the ultra-luxury segment.
Median single-family pricing moved decisively upward, frequently exceeding $6,000,000 for non-oceanfront estates and setting new benchmarks above $12,000,000 for select oceanfront transactions. Price-per-square-foot metrics reached historic highs, particularly for contemporary architectural residences with modern finishes and direct beach access.
Buyer behavior during 2021 reflected urgency. Cash transactions dominated the market, particularly above $5,000,000. Escalation clauses and limited contingencies became more prevalent. Sellers benefited from compressed days on market, often under 90 days for well-positioned properties.
Condominium markets in Makena experienced similar appreciation. Oceanfront units with strong short-term rental eligibility and turnkey furnishings attracted premium pricing. Median condominium values rose substantially, with several developments surpassing $3,000,000 medians by year-end.
4. 2022 Peak and Interest Rate Shift
The first half of 2022 extended the upward trajectory established in 2021. Single-family median pricing in Makena approached or exceeded $7,000,000 in certain enclaves, while premier oceanfront estates achieved record-setting transactions above prior comparable thresholds.
Mid-2022 introduced a macroeconomic inflection point as mortgage interest rates rose rapidly nationwide. While Makena’s buyer base includes a high percentage of cash purchasers, financing availability for condominium and upper-tier financed buyers influenced overall transaction volume.
Sales activity slowed in the third and fourth quarters of 2022. Inventory increased modestly as some sellers sought to capitalize on peak valuations. However, price corrections were limited and selective. Ultra-luxury markets typically adjust through extended marketing timelines rather than abrupt valuation declines.
Median pricing plateaued rather than reversed. Sellers demonstrated a willingness to wait for qualified buyers, reflecting lower leverage and long-term ownership orientation. Days on market extended toward 120 days or more for certain properties, particularly those priced at aspirational levels relative to recent comparables.
5. 2023 Market Normalization
The year 2023 marked normalization following the expansion peak. Median single-family home prices in Makena stabilized between approximately $6,500,000 and $7,500,000 depending on view orientation, lot size, and proximity to the shoreline. Transaction volume remained below 2021 highs but aligned with long-term historical norms for the area.
The August 2023 wildfires in West Maui introduced heightened awareness of insurance underwriting and risk assessment across the island. Although Makena was geographically unaffected, insurance premiums rose in certain segments, particularly for high-value oceanfront properties. Buyers increasingly evaluated construction materials, defensible landscaping, and fire mitigation infrastructure as part of due diligence.
Rental demand island-wide strengthened in response to displacement pressures, though Makena’s predominantly estate-oriented housing stock limited direct rental conversion. The adjacent market of Kihei experienced more noticeable rental shifts, indirectly influencing South Maui housing sentiment.
Days on market in Makena averaged between 120 and 180 days during 2023, reflecting selective absorption in a high-value environment. Well-designed contemporary homes achieved stronger liquidity than dated properties requiring renovation.
6. 2024 Stabilization
By 2024, Makena entered a stabilization phase characterized by disciplined buyer evaluations and realistic seller positioning. Median single-family pricing remained near $7,000,000 for non-oceanfront estates and significantly higher for direct beachfront properties.
Inventory levels modestly exceeded 2021 lows but remained constrained by geographic scarcity. The limited number of buildable oceanfront parcels continued reinforcing long-term pricing floors.
Construction costs for luxury estates remained elevated, frequently exceeding $1,200 per square foot when accounting for materials, labor, and permitting timelines. These replacement cost dynamics discouraged substantial price retrenchment.
Buyer profiles in 2024 included legacy wealth purchasers, technology and finance executives, and long-term Hawaii second-home owners diversifying portfolios. Financing represented a minority of transactions above $5,000,000, reinforcing price resilience.
Condominium absorption varied by project. Oceanfront units maintained stronger liquidity, while interior-view units experienced longer marketing periods.
7. 2025 Market Trends
Entering 2025, the Makena housing market reflects equilibrium within an ultra-luxury framework. Median single-family pricing remains within a $6,800,000 to $7,800,000 range for estate properties without direct beachfront frontage. Oceanfront transactions continue to command significant premiums based on frontage length and privacy.
Days on market average approximately 150 days, though unique architectural offerings and turnkey contemporary residences transact more quickly. Inventory remains limited, often fewer than fifteen active single-family listings at any given time.
Buyer behavior in 2025 emphasizes due diligence and long-term holding strategy rather than short-term appreciation. Insurance underwriting remains a consideration, though Makena’s low-density layout and established infrastructure mitigate some risk perceptions relative to more vegetated regions such as Kaanapali and Lahaina.
Appreciation has moderated to low single-digit annual growth, primarily supported by land scarcity and replacement cost floors.
8. 2026 Forecast & Outlook
Looking ahead to 2026, Makena is projected to maintain its status as one of Hawaii’s most exclusive coastal enclaves. Annual appreciation is forecast in the 3 to 6 percent range under stable macroeconomic conditions.
Inventory expansion remains unlikely due to conservation zoning, shoreline protection, and limited subdivision capacity. New luxury inventory is expected to be incremental rather than transformative.
Macroeconomic variables such as equity market performance and global wealth flows will continue exerting influence. However, Makena’s irreplaceable oceanfront positioning and long-term ownership patterns provide structural insulation against sharp corrections.
Condominium markets are expected to track broader luxury trends with moderate sensitivity to financing conditions.
9. Property Type Performance
Single-family estates dominate Makena’s housing inventory. Oceanfront properties achieve the highest price-per-square-foot metrics, often exceeding $2,500 per square foot depending on quality and frontage. Gated inland estates with expansive acreage maintain strong valuation support, though marketing timelines are longer.
Architectural quality significantly influences liquidity. Contemporary builds with seamless indoor-outdoor transitions and energy-efficient systems command premiums over older residences requiring modernization.
Condominium supply is limited relative to neighboring Wailea. Oceanfront projects such as Makena Surf maintain consistent buyer interest due to location and rental flexibility.
Vacant land inventory is minimal. When available, buildable parcels command substantial premiums due to rarity.
10. Comparative Position Within Maui
Relative to Wailea, Makena offers lower density and greater estate-scale privacy, though transaction volume is significantly lower. Wailea provides broader condominium inventory and more frequent liquidity, while Makena emphasizes exclusivity.
Compared to West Maui luxury markets such as Kapalua and Kaanapali, Makena benefits from South Maui’s drier climate and reduced tourism density. West Maui has experienced episodic volatility tied to resort cycles, whereas Makena transactions are predominantly long-term estate holdings.
Within South Maui, Kihei represents a more moderately priced and workforce-driven market. Makena operates within an entirely different valuation tier defined by luxury and land scarcity.
11. Conclusion
From 2020 through 2026, the Makena housing market experienced historic appreciation followed by disciplined stabilization. Median pricing rose significantly during the 2021 expansion phase and has since consolidated at elevated levels rather than retracing materially.
Makena’s defining characteristics remain limited oceanfront supply, conservation zoning, large parcel sizes, and a buyer base oriented toward long-term asset preservation. Transaction volume is inherently low, yet dollar volume remains substantial.
As of 2026, Makena stands among Hawaii’s most exclusive residential markets. Moderate appreciation, constrained inventory, and global wealth participation are expected to define its trajectory moving forward, reinforcing its position as a premier coastal enclave within South Maui.
